DEN
Denver Nuggets
0–0
Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET
NO
New Orleans Pelicans
Spread (NO)
+4.5
Total
240.5
Home moneyline
—
Model win probability — DEN 48% · NO 52% · model score 113–113
Best bet
No bet
No sportsbook price is published for this game yet, so the model's own projection cannot be priced into a bet.
Model confidence is not a guarantee. Bet responsibly and only risk what you can afford to lose.
Model projection
what the model makes of this game, and how sure it isWhy this bet
No strong betting edge — no market price is published for this game yet, so there is nothing to price this against; the model's own projection is 52.0%. The projection leans on Model rating gap (1390 vs 1446 — worth about +0.6 points to New Orleans Pelicans before the market) and Home court (Playing at home is modelled at 2.6 points in the NBA). The biggest risk: the rating rests on a thin sample of finished games. On confidence: Small edge or limited supporting data. Treat it as a considered lean rather than a certain one.
Model prediction · Model line (no price published)
Low confidenceNew Orleans Pelicans -0.6 (model line — no price published)
Model probability
Break-even
Estimated edge
Model score
total 226
The model is 5.1 points higher on NO than the board is.
What is driving it
- Model rating gap
1390 vs 1446 — worth about +0.6 points to New Orleans Pelicans before the market
- Home court
Playing at home is modelled at 2.6 points in the NBA
- Recent form
Denver Nuggets L · New Orleans Pelicans no games (oldest to newest)
- Thin data
Only 0 finished game(s) of sample for these two teams — the rating is a starting point, not a settled number
No sportsbook price available — model projection only. No betting edge claimed.
Sample quality: Thin sample · model v1.0 · model number Oct 27, 2:03 AM ET · sportsbook number Oct 28, 12:53 AM ET. These are estimated probabilities, not guarantees — no outcome is certain and past results do not predict future ones.
Sportsbook comparison
1 sportsbook quoting this game| Sportsbook | Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft Kingsfeed line | NO+4.5—DEN-4.5— | NO—DEN— | Over240.5—Under— | Oct 28, 12:53 AM ET |
Spread
NO+4.5—DEN-4.5—Moneyline
NO—DEN—Total
Over240.5—Under—Updated
Oct 28, 12:53 AM ET
Best available price in each column is highlighted. Implied probability of the best NO spread price: —. Prices are the ones our feeds publish and may differ from your book.
Drawing the chart…
Line movement
opening number to now · 1 recordedDrawing the chart…
Match analytics
the model against the market, read as chartsDrawing the chart…
Drawing the chart…
Drawing the chart…
Recent meetings
DEN vs NONo completed meetings in our records yet.
Team news
injuries and updatesReading this page
Prices are the best numbers we hold; your sportsbook may show something different. The best price in each column is highlighted, which is the one worth asking for. Probabilities come from the model described under every pick and are estimates only — no outcome is ever guaranteed, and past model results do not predict future ones.
Advanced analytics
the model's own audit trail for this gameProjection history
every snapshot the model recorded
No snapshots recorded for this game yet. History starts from the first sync after a projection appears.
Each entry holds the model's number and the book's number as they stood at that moment. Nothing is recalculated with results or line moves that arrived later.