OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
0–0
Wed, Oct 28 · 9:30 PM ET
DAL
Dallas Mavericks
Spread (DAL)
0
Total
0
Home moneyline
—
Model win probability — OKC 54% · DAL 46% · model score 114–112
Best bet
+300Dallas Mavericks moneyline +300
Best price
+300
Model edge
+20.9%
Confidence
Moderate confidenceModel sees value, but uncertainty remains.
The model favors Dallas Mavericks to win outright — it rates them 45.9% against the 25.0% implied by +300, the strongest edge it has priced for this game.
Model confidence is not a guarantee. Bet responsibly and only risk what you can afford to lose.
Model projection
what the model makes of this game, and how sure it isWhy this bet
The model rates Dallas Mavericks ML at 45.9%, above the 25.0% implied by +300, so the market is paying more than the model's number — a very strong edge of +20.9%. The projection leans on Model rating gap (1502 vs 1614 — worth about -1.3 points to Oklahoma City Thunder before the market) and Home court (Playing at home is modelled at 2.6 points in the NBA). The biggest risk: the rating rests on a thin sample of finished games. On confidence: Model sees value, but uncertainty remains. Treat it as a considered lean rather than a certain one.
Model prediction · Moneyline
Moderate confidenceDallas Mavericks ML
Price +300
Model probability
Break-even
price implied
Estimated edge
Model score
total 226
The model is 1.3 points higher on OKC than the board is.
What is driving it
- Model rating gap
1502 vs 1614 — worth about -1.3 points to Oklahoma City Thunder before the market
- Home court
Playing at home is modelled at 2.6 points in the NBA
- Recent form
Oklahoma City Thunder W · Dallas Mavericks W (oldest to newest)
- Thin data
Only 1 finished game(s) of sample for these two teams — the rating is a starting point, not a settled number
Sample quality: Thin sample · model v1.0 · model number Oct 27, 2:03 AM ET · sportsbook number not published. These are estimated probabilities, not guarantees — no outcome is certain and past results do not predict future ones.
Sportsbook comparison
4 sportsbooks quoting this game| Sportsbook | Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics Markets | DAL0—OKC0— | DAL+270OKC-355 | Over0—Under— | Oct 27, 11:32 AM ET |
| Fliff | DAL0—OKC0— | DAL+270OKC-350 | Over0—Under— | Oct 27, 11:32 AM ET |
| Kalshi | DAL0—OKC0— | DAL+285OKC-317 | Over0—Under— | Oct 27, 11:27 AM ET |
| Polymarket | DAL0—OKC0— | DAL+300OKC-317 | Over0—Under— | Oct 27, 11:31 AM ET |
Spread
DAL0—OKC0—Moneyline
DAL+270OKC-355Total
Over0—Under—Updated
Oct 27, 11:32 AM ET
Spread
DAL0—OKC0—Moneyline
DAL+270OKC-350Total
Over0—Under—Updated
Oct 27, 11:32 AM ET
Spread
DAL0—OKC0—Moneyline
DAL+285OKC-317Total
Over0—Under—Updated
Oct 27, 11:27 AM ET
Spread
DAL0—OKC0—Moneyline
DAL+300OKC-317Total
Over0—Under—Updated
Oct 27, 11:31 AM ET
Best available price in each column is highlighted. Implied probability of the best DAL spread price: —. Prices are the ones our feeds publish and may differ from your book.
Drawing the chart…
Line movement
opening number to nowDrawing the chart…
Match analytics
the model against the market, read as chartsDrawing the chart…
Drawing the chart…
Drawing the chart…
Recent meetings
OKC vs DALNo completed meetings in our records yet.
Team news
injuries and updatesOklahoma City faces Dallas on 3-game win streak
Oklahoma City Thunder (3-0, second in the Western Conference) vs. Dallas Mavericks (2-2, seventh in the Western Conference)
ESPN
Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead injury-riddled Thunder past Suns 125-114
— Ajay Mitchell scored a career-high 30 points, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 26 and the short-handed Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Phoenix Suns 125-114 on Monday night.
ESPN
Reading this page
Prices are the best numbers we hold; your sportsbook may show something different. The best price in each column is highlighted, which is the one worth asking for. Probabilities come from the model described under every pick and are estimates only — no outcome is ever guaranteed, and past model results do not predict future ones.
Advanced analytics
the model's own audit trail for this gameProjection history
every snapshot the model recorded
No snapshots recorded for this game yet. History starts from the first sync after a projection appears.
Each entry holds the model's number and the book's number as they stood at that moment. Nothing is recalculated with results or line moves that arrived later.