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Oddsline
CFBWed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET
Aggie Memorial Stadium · ESPN2

JXST

Jacksonville State Gamecocks

0–0

Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET

NMSU

New Mexico State Aggies

Spread (NMSU)

+3.5

Total

49.5

Home moneyline

—

Model win probability — JXST 49% · NMSU 51% · model score 27–27

Best bet

+145

New Mexico State Aggies moneyline +145

Best price

+145

Model edge

+10.1%

Confidence

Moderate confidence

Model sees value, but uncertainty remains.

The model favors New Mexico State Aggies to win outright — it rates them 50.9% against the 40.8% implied by +145, the strongest edge it has priced for this game.

Model confidence is not a guarantee. Bet responsibly and only risk what you can afford to lose.

Model projection

what the model makes of this game, and how sure it is

Why this bet

The model rates New Mexico State Aggies ML at 50.9%, above the 40.8% implied by +145, so the market is paying more than the model's number — a very strong edge of +10.1%. The projection leans on Model rating gap (1484 vs 1547 — worth about +0.4 points to New Mexico State Aggies before the market) and Home field (Playing at home is modelled at 3.0 points in the CFB). The biggest risk: the rating rests on a thin sample of finished games. On confidence: Model sees value, but uncertainty remains. Treat it as a considered lean rather than a certain one.

Model prediction · Moneyline

Moderate confidence

New Mexico State Aggies ML

Price +145

Model probability

50.9%

Break-even

40.8%

price implied

Estimated edge

+10.1%

Model score

27–27

total 54

Sportsbook lineNMSU +3.5
Model lineNMSU -0.4
Difference3.9 points
Total49.5 posted vs 54 model (+4.5)

The model is 3.9 points higher on NMSU than the board is.

JXST win probability49.1%
NMSU win probability50.9%
NMSU 3.5 covers59.5%
Over 49.562.2%

What is driving it

  • Model rating gap

    1484 vs 1547 — worth about +0.4 points to New Mexico State Aggies before the market

  • Home field

    Playing at home is modelled at 3.0 points in the CFB

  • Thin data

    Only 0 finished game(s) of sample for these two teams — the rating is a starting point, not a settled number

Sample quality: Thin sample · model v1.0 · model number Oct 27, 2:05 AM ET · sportsbook number Oct 27, 11:35 AM ET. These are estimated probabilities, not guarantees — no outcome is certain and past results do not predict future ones.

Sportsbook comparison

13 sportsbooks quoting this game
FanDuel

Spread

NMSU+3.5-115JXST-3.5-105

Moneyline

NMSU+132JXST-160

Total

Over49.5-110Under-110

Updated

Oct 27, 11:30 AM ET

BetMGM

Spread

NMSU+3.5-118JXST-3.5-102

Moneyline

NMSU+135JXST-165

Total

Over49.5-110Under-108

Updated

Oct 27, 11:35 AM ET

Caesars

Spread

NMSU+3.5-117JXST-3.5-104

Moneyline

NMSU+132JXST-157

Total

Over49.5-112Under-112

Updated

Oct 27, 10:28 AM ET

BetRivers

Spread

NMSU+3.5-113JXST-3.5-110

Moneyline

NMSU+130JXST-162

Total

Over49.5-113Under-109

Updated

Oct 27, 11:35 AM ET

Fanatics

Spread

NMSU+3+100JXST-3-120

Moneyline

NMSU+135JXST-160

Total

Over49.5-110Under-110

Updated

Oct 27, 11:26 AM ET

bet365

Spread

NMSU+3.5-114JXST-3.5-106

Moneyline

NMSU+136JXST-161

Total

Over49.5-110Under-110

Updated

Oct 27, 11:35 AM ET

BetOnline

Spread

NMSU+3.5-120JXST-3.5+100

Moneyline

NMSU+137JXST-157

Total

Over49.5-110Under-110

Updated

Oct 27, 11:34 AM ET

Bovada

Spread

NMSU+3-105JXST-3-115

Moneyline

NMSU+135JXST-160

Total

Over49.5-110Under-110

Updated

Oct 27, 11:35 AM ET

Unibet

Spread

NMSU+3.5-118JXST-3.5-105

Moneyline

NMSU+145JXST-172

Total

Over49.5-114Under-111

Updated

Oct 27, 11:35 AM ET

Hard Rock

Spread

NMSU+3.5-110JXST-3.5-110

Moneyline

NMSU+130JXST-160

Total

Over49.5-110Under-110

Updated

Oct 27, 11:28 AM ET

Bally Bet

Spread

NMSU+3.5-112JXST-3.5-108

Moneyline

NMSU+130JXST-162

Total

Over49.5-112Under-108

Updated

Oct 27, 11:35 AM ET

Draft Kingsfeed line

Spread

NMSU+3.5—JXST-3.5—

Moneyline

NMSU—JXST—

Total

Over49.5—Under—

Updated

Oct 27, 2:05 AM ET

DraftKings

Spread

NMSU+3.5-119JXST-3.5-102

Moneyline

NMSU+136JXST-164

Total

Over49.5-111Under-111

Updated

Oct 27, 11:35 AM ET

Best available price in each column is highlighted. Implied probability of the best NMSU spread price: 50.0%. Prices are the ones our feeds publish and may differ from your book.

Drawing the chart…

Line movement

opening number to now · 1 recorded

Drawing the chart…

Match analytics

the model against the market, read as charts

Drawing the chart…

Drawing the chart…

Drawing the chart…

Recent meetings

JXST vs NMSU

No completed meetings in our records yet.

Reading this page

Prices are the best numbers we hold; your sportsbook may show something different. The best price in each column is highlighted, which is the one worth asking for. Probabilities come from the model described under every pick and are estimates only — no outcome is ever guaranteed, and past model results do not predict future ones.

Advanced analytics

the model's own audit trail for this game

Projection history

every snapshot the model recorded

All-Star

No snapshots recorded for this game yet. History starts from the first sync after a projection appears.

Each entry holds the model's number and the book's number as they stood at that moment. Nothing is recalculated with results or line moves that arrived later.