CAR
Carolina Panthers
0–0
Thu, Oct 29 · 8:15 PM ET
GB
Green Bay Packers
Spread (GB)
-3.5
Total
47.5
Home moneyline
—
Model win probability — CAR 42% · GB 58% · model score 21–23
Best bet
-102Under 47.5
Best price
-102
Model edge
+10.1%
Confidence
Moderate confidenceModel sees value, but uncertainty remains.
The model projects 44.0 points below the 47.5 line, so the under is the strongest edge it has priced for this game.
Model confidence is not a guarantee. Bet responsibly and only risk what you can afford to lose.
Model projection
what the model makes of this game, and how sure it isWhy this bet
The model rates Under 47.5 at 60.6%, above the 50.5% implied by -102, so the market is paying more than the model's number — a very strong edge of +10.1%. The projection leans on Model rating gap (1516 vs 1488 — worth about +2.8 points to Green Bay Packers before the market) and Home field (Playing at home is modelled at 1.9 points in the NFL). The biggest risk: the rating rests on a thin sample of finished games. On confidence: Model sees value, but uncertainty remains. Treat it as a considered lean rather than a certain one.
Model prediction · Total
Moderate confidenceUnder 47.5
Price -102
Model probability
Break-even
price implied
Estimated edge
Model score
total 44
The model is 0.7 points higher on CAR than the board is.
What is driving it
- Model rating gap
1516 vs 1488 — worth about +2.8 points to Green Bay Packers before the market
- Home field
Playing at home is modelled at 1.9 points in the NFL
- Recent form
Carolina Panthers L · Green Bay Packers L (oldest to newest)
- Thin data
Only 1 finished game(s) of sample for these two teams — the rating is a starting point, not a settled number
Sample quality: Thin sample · model v1.0 · model number Oct 27, 3:39 AM ET · sportsbook number Oct 27, 3:38 AM ET. These are estimated probabilities, not guarantees — no outcome is certain and past results do not predict future ones.
Sportsbook comparison
13 sportsbooks quoting this game| Sportsbook | Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars | GB-3.5-117CAR+3.5-104 | GB-190CAR+155 | Over48-107Under-113 | Oct 27, 8:36 AM ET |
| DraftKings | GB-3.5-111CAR+3.5-111 | GB-185CAR+154 | Over48.5-105Under-116 | Oct 27, 12:25 PM ET |
| FanDuel | GB-3.5-114CAR+3.5-106 | GB-190CAR+160 | Over47.5-118Under-104 | Oct 27, 12:25 PM ET |
| BetMGM | GB-3.5-110CAR+3.5-108 | GB-190CAR+155 | Over48-108Under-110 | Oct 27, 12:25 PM ET |
| BetRivers | GB-3.5-112CAR+3.5-109 | GB-200CAR+165 | Over48-108Under-113 | Oct 26, 5:54 PM ET |
| Fanatics | GB-3.5-110CAR+3.5-110 | GB-195CAR+160 | Over48-110Under-110 | Oct 27, 12:25 PM ET |
| bet365 | GB-3.5-112CAR+3.5-108 | GB-198CAR+164 | Over48-115Under-125 | Oct 27, 1:34 PM ET |
| BetOnline | GB-4-105CAR+4-115 | GB-195CAR+170 | Over48-105Under-115 | Oct 27, 8:49 AM ET |
| Bovada | GB-3.5-115CAR+3.5-105 | GB-200CAR+170 | Over48-115Under-105 | Oct 27, 1:34 PM ET |
| Unibet | GB-3.5-114CAR+3.5-106 | GB-200CAR+160 | Over48.5-106Under-114 | Oct 27, 12:25 PM ET |
| Hard Rock | GB-4-110CAR+4-110 | GB-195CAR+165 | Over48.5-110Under-110 | Oct 27, 12:25 PM ET |
| Bally Bet | GB-3.5-112CAR+3.5-109 | GB-200CAR+165 | Over48-108Under-113 | Oct 26, 5:54 PM ET |
| 1xBet | GB-3.5-112CAR+3.5-108 | GB-200CAR+165 | Over47.5-115Under-105 | Oct 26, 7:17 PM ET |
Spread
GB-3.5-117CAR+3.5-104Moneyline
GB-190CAR+155Total
Over48-107Under-113Updated
Oct 27, 8:36 AM ET
Spread
GB-3.5-111CAR+3.5-111Moneyline
GB-185CAR+154Total
Over48.5-105Under-116Updated
Oct 27, 12:25 PM ET
Spread
GB-3.5-114CAR+3.5-106Moneyline
GB-190CAR+160Total
Over47.5-118Under-104Updated
Oct 27, 12:25 PM ET
Spread
GB-3.5-110CAR+3.5-108Moneyline
GB-190CAR+155Total
Over48-108Under-110Updated
Oct 27, 12:25 PM ET
Spread
GB-3.5-112CAR+3.5-109Moneyline
GB-200CAR+165Total
Over48-108Under-113Updated
Oct 26, 5:54 PM ET
Spread
GB-3.5-110CAR+3.5-110Moneyline
GB-195CAR+160Total
Over48-110Under-110Updated
Oct 27, 12:25 PM ET
Spread
GB-3.5-112CAR+3.5-108Moneyline
GB-198CAR+164Total
Over48-115Under-125Updated
Oct 27, 1:34 PM ET
Spread
GB-4-105CAR+4-115Moneyline
GB-195CAR+170Total
Over48-105Under-115Updated
Oct 27, 8:49 AM ET
Spread
GB-3.5-115CAR+3.5-105Moneyline
GB-200CAR+170Total
Over48-115Under-105Updated
Oct 27, 1:34 PM ET
Spread
GB-3.5-114CAR+3.5-106Moneyline
GB-200CAR+160Total
Over48.5-106Under-114Updated
Oct 27, 12:25 PM ET
Spread
GB-4-110CAR+4-110Moneyline
GB-195CAR+165Total
Over48.5-110Under-110Updated
Oct 27, 12:25 PM ET
Spread
GB-3.5-112CAR+3.5-109Moneyline
GB-200CAR+165Total
Over48-108Under-113Updated
Oct 26, 5:54 PM ET
Spread
GB-3.5-112CAR+3.5-108Moneyline
GB-200CAR+165Total
Over47.5-115Under-105Updated
Oct 26, 7:17 PM ET
Best available price in each column is highlighted. Implied probability of the best GB spread price: 51.2%. Prices are the ones our feeds publish and may differ from your book.
Drawing the chart…
Line movement
opening number to now · 1 recordedDrawing the chart…
Match analytics
the model against the market, read as chartsDrawing the chart…
Drawing the chart…
Drawing the chart…
Recent meetings
CAR vs GBNo completed meetings in our records yet.
Reading this page
Prices are the best numbers we hold; your sportsbook may show something different. The best price in each column is highlighted, which is the one worth asking for. Probabilities come from the model described under every pick and are estimates only — no outcome is ever guaranteed, and past model results do not predict future ones.
Advanced analytics
the model's own audit trail for this gameProjection history
every snapshot the model recorded
No snapshots recorded for this game yet. History starts from the first sync after a projection appears.
Each entry holds the model's number and the book's number as they stood at that moment. Nothing is recalculated with results or line moves that arrived later.